The members and president of the jury warmly congratulate Hugo ORIOLA for his brilliant thesis defense which focuses on the direct or indirect impact of the actions of the central bank on the outcome of the elections.
Why is it so difficult to reform pensions in France? A reflection by Anne Lavigne, Professor of Economics at the LÉO and Advisor to the COR from 2016 to 2022
Economy in Orléans: the LEO and the future university campus will open on the Porte-Madeleine site in September 2025
The Orléans Economics Laboratory is a host team at the University of Orléans.
It has about a hundred members, whose research covers three main areas of expertise:
Lab news
Prediction of bubbles in presence of α-stable aggregates moving averages
Gilles de Truchis, Sébastien Fries, Arthur Thomas
2026-03-25
Financial markets frequently exhibit dramatic episodes where asset prices undergo rapid growth followed by abrupt collapses, that are incompatible with standard linear time series models. While anticipative heavytailed linear processes offer a promising alternative for modeling such phenomena, they impose uniform bubble patterns across different episodes, contradicting empirical evidence. This paper introduces a new model, based on α-stable moving average aggregates, that accommodates heterogeneous bubble dynamics.
We establish the theoretical properties of this model, demonstrating that it admits a semi-norm representation on a unit cylinder, thereby enabling the prediction of extreme trajectories with varying growth dynamics. We develop a minimum distance estimation procedure based on the joint characteristic function and establish its asymptotic properties. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the estimator's good finite-sample performance across various specifications, and we implement a subsampling methodology to empirically verify the convergence to asymptotic normality. Our empirical application to the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index successfully decomposes observed volatility dynamics into distinct components with different persistence properties, revealing that what appears as a single bubble episode actually consists of multiple superimposed processes with heterogeneous growth rates and crash probabilities.
Public Health as a Buffer for FDI: The Role of Healthcare Services in Economic Stability
Zahra Khalilzadeh Silabi
2026
Fiscal Rules and Environmental Spending: Navigating the Trade- off between Discipline and Green Priorities
Ablam Estel Apeti, Bao We Wal Bambe, Jean-Louis Combes, Pascale Combes Motel, Rayangnewendé Frans Sawadogo
2026
Trading Returns for Privacy: Experimental Evidence from Financial Data Leaks
Mehdi Louafi
2026
Willingness to pay for the environment : the role of social status and of prosocial orientation
Martin Cimetiere, Sébastien Galanti
2026
Algorithmic Transparency and Portfolio Choices: Field Evidence
Béatrice Boulu-Reshef, Alexis Direr, Mehdi Louafi
2026
Prediction of bubbles in presence of α-stable aggregates moving averages
Gilles de Truchis, Sébastien Fries, Arthur Thomas
2026-03-25
Public Health as a Buffer for FDI: The Role of Healthcare Services in Economic Stability
Zahra Khalilzadeh Silabi
2026
Fiscal Rules and Environmental Spending: Navigating the Trade- off between Discipline and Green Priorities
Ablam Estel Apeti, Bao We Wal Bambe, Jean-Louis Combes, Pascale Combes Motel, Rayangnewendé Frans Sawadogo
2026
Trading Returns for Privacy: Experimental Evidence from Financial Data Leaks
Mehdi Louafi
2026
Willingness to pay for the environment : the role of social status and of prosocial orientation
Martin Cimetiere, Sébastien Galanti
2026
Algorithmic Transparency and Portfolio Choices: Field Evidence
Béatrice Boulu-Reshef, Alexis Direr, Mehdi Louafi
2026