Séminaires de recherche

Mardi | 2019-09-17
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Cyriac GUILLAUMIN – Salem Boubakri – Alexandre SILANINE

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the real effective exchange rate misalignments and the real commodity price volatilities in a sample of 46 commodity-exporting countries, taking into account the level of financial development as the transition variable. We first estimate the currency misalignments as the deviation of the observed real effective exchange rates from their equilibrium values estimated using the BEER approach. Then, we rely on the panel smooth transition regression model to estimate the non-linear impact of commodity price volatilities on currency misalignments. Our results show that the estimated coefficients are highly significant and demonstrate that the volatility of the real commodity prices has a non-linear impact on the currency misalignments, depending on the degree of the country’s financial development. The results also highlight different dynamics based on the type of commodity exported by the country and its level of financialization.

Mardi | 2019-09-12
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Gerhard TOWENS – Radoslaw STEFANSKI – Marta TROYA MARTINEZ

International contracts are difficult to enforce, especially in countries with weak institutions. Thus, oil rich countries can hold up international oil firms by renegotiating taxes once the investment is sunk. If future gains from trade exist, countries can devise a self-enforcing agreement instead. We use elections to show that governments in countries with weak institutions indeed face a binding self-enforceability constraint, while countries with strong institutions do not. We show that only in countries with weak institutions, incumbent governments, facing a non-zero probability of losing power, increase taxes by 10pp in the year of the election to satisfy the self-enforceability constraint. A self-enforcing agreement would require investment and taxes to be backloaded (Thomas and Worrall (1994)). We explore this empirically and show that contracts in countries with weak institutions seem to be relatively more backloaded than those in countries with strong institutions.

Mardi | 2019-07-09
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Supriya KAPOOR

We study the effects of the US Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase programs on bank liquidity creation. Banks create liquidity when they transform the liquid reserves resulted from quantitative easing into illiquid assets. As the composition of banks’ loan portfolio affects the amount of liquidity it creates, the impact of the different rounds of quantitative easing on liquidity creation is not a priori clear. Using a difference-in-difference identification strategy, we find that banks that were more exposed to the large scale asset purchases have indeed created more liquidity in the banking sector. These effects, however, are only present for the third round of quantitative easing, when the Fed largely purchased mortgage-backed securities, and less so for the other rounds.

Mardi | 2019-06-27
Salle des thèses 10h30 – 12h00

Mehmet PINAR – Thanasis STENGOS

The determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) have been extensively studied. Even though, there is extensive research on the determinants of FDI flows, most of this research is based on the effects of host country characteristics on FDI flows, and there is little research on how neighboring country characteristics play a role in FDI flows to host countries. This paper analyzes the association between democracy level in neighboring countries and FDI flows to host countries. Using bilateral FDI flows from the OECD countries, with a large host-country sample, we find that countries surrounded with democratic countries attract higher FDI flows. Furthermore, we find evidence that the countries that are surrounded by good institutions tend to have better institutions, experience lower civil conflict and have higher political stability suggesting that being surrounded by better democracies have indirect role in attracting higher FDI flows to host countries. Our findings suggest that if neighboring countries act together to become more democratic, FDI flows to these countries would be much higher since not only improving the quality of democracy attracts more FDI inflows but also being surrounded by neighboring advanced democratic countries will also lead to higher FDI flows to these countries.

Mardi | 2019-06-25
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Sandrine KABLAN

L’objectif principal de cet article est de tester une hypothèse nouvelle en construisant une variable originale selon laquelle la maturité des banques centrales(BC) ou encore l’expérience des BC influence les performances économiques des Etats contemporains. Nous définissons la maturité de la BC comme la différence entre l’année 2010 et son année de création. Notre hypothèse reste valide même en contrôlant par des variables économiques, institutionnelles, historiques et socioculturelles. De même, nous exposons deux principaux canaux de transmission à travers lesquels la maturité des BC influence la performance: le canal par le développement financier et celui par la stabilité bancaire. De même, nous montrons que notre indicateur de maturité des BC agit sur d’autres déterminants de développement financier.

Mardi | 2019-06-11
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Julie LOCHARD – Igor BAGAYEV – Dieter KOGLER

The scientific evidence for human induced climate change and environmental degradation is unequivocal. Accelerating the development of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies (CCMTs) is a key challenge to temper the costs associated with climate change and air pollution. In this project, we investigate the impact of environmental policies on innovation activities in general, and green technologies in particular. Our methodology makes use of original data at the regional level on environmental measures implemented to decrease air pollution in the European Union and data on patents relating to green technologies (and non-green technologies). Using a quasi diff-in-diff setting, we are able to identify consistently the influence of a stricter environmental policy on different patterns of innovation activity.

Mardi | 2019-06-04
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Oana CALAVREZO

In 2014, within a context of persistent unemployment, increased use of short-term contracts and rise of the number of job seekers who work while remaining registered to the unemployment agency, a new agreement between employers’ and employees’ representatives introduced the droits rechargeables, roll-over entitlements, in the field of the French unemployment insurance. The principle of roll-over entitlements is that the more a jobseeker receiving unemployment insurance benefits works, the more she cumulates new entitlements and has an extended compensation duration. The underlying objectives of the device is securing the situation of jobseekers who alternate spells of employment and unemployment and encouraging the return to work. Roll-over entitlements, a French particularity, and the topic of alternating employment and unemployment are at the heart of the current debate over the French public employment service. To our knowledge, roll-over entitlements are not studied in the literature. Our paper contributes to filling this gap. Moreover, studying roll-over entitlements is particularly interesting as it questions the incentives of the unemployment insurance in returning to work and the influence of unemployment insurance on contracts’ duration. Our paper provides original work by analysing the trajectories of individuals who received unemployment insurance benefits and recharged their entitlements between October 1st, 2014 and December 31st, 2017 by using rich French administrative data on unemployment spells (FNA – Fichier National des Allocataires).

Mardi | 2019-04-23
Salle des thèses 10h30 – 12h00

Florence HUART – António AFONSO – Joao Tovar JALLES – Piotr STANEK

We revisit the twin deficit relationship for a sample of 193 countries over the period 1980-2016, using a panel fixed effect (within-group) estimator, bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable, system GMM, and common correlated effects pooled estimation procedures. We estimate the impact of fiscal rules on this relationship. In the absence of fiscal rules, the twin deficit hypothesis is confirmed. The size of the estimated coefficient on the budget balance is between 0.68 and 0.79. However, the existence of fiscal rules strongly reduces the effect of budget balances on current account balances (the coefficient is reduced to 0.1). In addition, our analysis also accounts for various types of fiscal rules (budget balance rules, debt rules, expenditure rules, revenue rules, procedural rules).

Mardi | 2019-04-02
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Virginie MONVOISIN – Jean-François PONSOT

Depuis dix ans, le monde subit les conséquences de la plus grande crise économique et financière internationale que l’on ait connue depuis près d’un siècle, une catastrophe que toute la science des facultés et tous les modèles des grands instituts de statistique et de prévision n’ont pas vue venir et n’ont toujours pas comprise. Rien d’étonnant à cette impuissance de la science économique dominante qui, depuis une trentaine d’années, a réactivé une économie pré-keynésienne qui méprise la macroéconomie, ne s’intéresse qu’aux comportements d’individus imaginaires, ne connaît que les marchés autorégulés et considère que la finance n’affecte pas vraiment le fonctionnement de l’économie !Les auteurs entendent ici combler ce déficit béant d’explication des grands problèmes contemporains en exposant les apports du courant post-keynésien. Celui-ci n’a cessé de prolonger et de compléter les travaux de Keynes pour mieux comprendre le rôle de la finance spéculative, la mondialisation, la conduite des acteurs face à l’incertitude, les inégalités, les crises, le développement soutenable, la politique monétaire et budgétaire, le management des entreprises dans le capitalisme financiarisé… bref, pour approfondir une approche réaliste et utile de l’économie.L’ouvrage présente les grandes figures fondatrices de cette école de pensée (Keynes, Kalecki, Robinson, Kaldor, Minsky), les fondements théoriques du système économique et de ses déséquilibres ainsi que les politiques économiques préconisées par les post-keynésiens. C’est, en langue française, la première grande synthèse d’un courant majeur de la pensée économique contemporaine.

Mardi | 2019-03-26
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Matthieu PICAULT

Using 25,000 articles from five international newspapers, we construct a measure of media sentiment regarding the European Central Bank policy actions and their consequences, the monetary policy sentiment (MPS) index. We then analyze the effect of ECB governing council members’ communications between 2006 and 2016 on MPS together with standard policy factors. We find that communications of the president during the press conference and communications of governing council members on the economic outlook significantly affect media sentiment. We evaluate the relevance of sentiment on monetary policy by examining how it conditions the response of financial markets’ inflation expectations to inflation surprises. Our analysis suggests that keeping media optimistic can help bringing inflation expectations back to suitable levels in times of desanchoring.