Séminaires de recherche

Mardi | 2019-12-10
B103 16h 17h20

This paper analyses the relationship between a set of knowledge indicators capturing the degree of variety of the local knowledge base focusing on environmental based patents’ technological combinations and the creation of innovative firms specialised in the environmental field in France. Based on a firm-level microdata from DIANE (Bureau van Dijk) and patents information from the OECD REGPAT (2018) database for the period 2003 and 2013, main results show that unrelated knowledge variety for environmental technologies and the political support in terms of investments for the protection of the environment are the main factors explaining the location of eco-innovative firms. Indeed, by applying spatial econometrics we found that there is a clear spatial dependence on the creation. However, our results also show that the impact of the knowledge composition is quite local.

Mardi | 2019-12-03
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Hendrik KRUSE – Thais NUNEZ-ROCHA – Camélia TURCU

In this paper, we investigate the claim that rich countries use development aid to ensure access to natural resources. We provide a theoretical model that suggests that even an altruistic donor may be inclined to allocate a higher share of their aid expenditure on infrastructure and other trade promoting measures if they rely on the recipient’s resource exports for their own production. We use a panel dataset from 2001 to 2011. Our results suggest that bilateral resource trade on average positively affects the number of infrastructure projects and the average size of projects. The effect seems to be driven mostly by fuels and road infrastructure projects. While the effect of resources is weaker for landlocked countries, we find that the transport capacity of the recipient’s fleet of bulk carriers —used in the maritime transport of many resources— reinforces the effect of resources on infrastructure aid. Finally, we find a decreasing influence of resources over time.

Mardi | 2019-11-26
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Franck JOVANOVIC

Le séminaire a pour objectif de montrer le rôle précurseur du LEO, et en particulier de Georges Gallais-Hamonno, dans l’introduction de l’économie financière en France parmi les économistes français au milieu des années 1970. L’Institut orléanais de finance, ancêtre du LEO, est en effet le premier laboratoire français à une époque où cette discipline est délaissée par les économistes français, laissant le champ libre aux gestionnaires français pendant plus d’une décennie. La présentation permettra de montrer que LEO et ses membres occupaient une position singulière dans le paysage universitaire français. Ce séminaire offrira l’occasion de rappeler certains aspects importants de l’histoire du LEO que certains membres du LEO ignorent peut être.

Mardi | 2019-11-05
Salle des thèses 16h-17h20

Financial institutions increasingly rely on predictive machine learning models to detect fraudulent transactions. Two main challenges when building a supervised tool for fraud detection are the imbalance or skewness of the data and the various costs for different types of miscalissification. We discuss techniques to solve the imbalance issue and present a cost-sensitive logistic regression algorithm.

Mercredi | 2019-10-24
Salle B103 – 12h00

Tobignaré YABRE

This paper analyses the growth effect of various components of public expenditure in interaction with numerical fiscal rules. We estimate a dynamic panel model for 92 developed and developing countries using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique. We provide a more systematic empirical evidence than available hitherto defending that the adoption of a fiscal rule generates a shift on the composition of government expenditure that may increase the growth rate. It appears that without a fiscal rule, an increase in the shares of education, health and defence expenditures has a negative effect on growth, but this effect becomes positive under balanced budget, expenditure and debt rules. These rules also tend to increase the positive marginal effect of agricultural and transport and communication expenditures on growth but tend to reduce the beneficial effect of social protection expenditure on growth. Moreover, the results clearly indicate that fiscal rules tend to become growth-promoting instruments as some components of the budget increase excessively, except for the revenue rule that appears to be insignificant.

Mardi | 2019-10-22
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

We provide a bank-run model in which confidence is proxied by the noise around the estimation by depositors of the distribution of the asset portfolio of their bank in t = 0. The probability that a bank i experiences a run in t = 1 depends on the realized returns of the other banks due to informational and balance sheet linkages between financial institutions. Low confidence is found to foster informational contagion, because it leads depositors to strongly revise their estimate of future bank portfolio return following bad returns. More surprisingly low confidence also enhances balance sheet contagion because the marginal impact of a loss from balance sheet linkages is higher when expected returns are low, implying that size matters more when confidence is low.

Mercredi | 2019-10-10
Salle B103 – 12h00

Hugo ORIOLA

The literature dealing with the political impact on monetary authority is marked by an ongoing discussion. This paper aims to prove that politically induced cycles in the monetary policy called political monetary cycles (PMC) exist in reality. We find evidence that such a phenomenon is observable in both developed and developing countries. Moreover, this result is confirmed regardless the level of independence of the central bank. In addition, we examine if the amplitude of these PMC depends on country-specific characteristics such as institutional and monetary policy framework or colonial past. We conclude that PMC are more likely to appear in developing countries characterized by a less important institutional quality, a young central bank or a low oil rent.

Mardi | 2019-10-08
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Colombe LADREIT DE LACHARRIèRE – Jérémie COHEN-SETTON – Egor GORNOSTAY

This paper estimates the effects of fiscal stimulus on economic activity using a novel database on large fiscal expansions for 17 OECD countries for the period 1960–2006. The database is constructed by combining the statistical approach to identifying large shifts in fiscal policy with narrative evidence from contemporaneous policy documents. When correctly identified, large fiscal stimulus packages are found to have strong and persistent expansionary effects on economic activity, with a multiplier of 1 or above. The effects of stimulus are largest in slumps and smallest in booms.

Mercredi | 2019-09-26
Salle B103 – 12h00

Robert Christian Serge MEBENGA M’ENAM

Nous nous proposons dans ce travail, d’estimer une règle opérationnelle de conduite permettant aux responsables de la BEAC de préserver la stabilité des prix tout en limitant les écarts du PIB par rapport à sa cible. Pour ce faire, nous optimisons une fonction-objectif conforme au mandat de la BEAC. Nous dérivons ensuite le taux d’inflation optimal et effectuons des simulations sur le paramètre d’arbitrage entre la variabilité de l’inflation et celle de la production sur cent huit trimestres. Nous extrayons enfin la règle opérationnelle de ciblage de l’inflation à proposer aux autorités monétaires de la CEMAC.

Mardi | 2019-09-24
Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20

Isabelle RABAUD – VOLKER NITSCH

Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for partner countries with low border barriers to France, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products. A possible explanation for these patterns is an increase in trade costs due to stricter security measures.