Isabelle RABAUD

This paper highlights different channels through which natural disasters affect exports of agricultural products in developing countries, along different mechanisms arising from supply and demand. By using disaster variables (occurrence and intensity) from EM-DAT and GeoMet datasets with trade data at the 6 digit-HS level, our first estimates point to a non-robust relationship between disasters and agricultural exports from developing countries. We then argue that this non-statistical relationship hides two opposite effects: one supply effect negative on exports (i.e. reduction in capabilities of production); and a foreign demand effect (ie. altruism hypothesis), positive on exports. Using complementary data sources on a subset of products at hand, we could detect a supply effect. More interestingly, we were able to estimate a new demand effect across many alternative identifying variables, methods and controls. The detection of this positive effect, consistent with foreign consumers’ altruism, is new in the literature. It explains at least partly why disasters might not lead to very important falls in exports in developing countries.

Abstract Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyses the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. According to our estimates, France’s trade in goods, which accounts for about 70% of the country’s trade in goods and services, is reduced by more than 6 billion euros in the first 6 months after an attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for partner countries with low border barriers to France, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products. A possible explanation for these patterns is an increase in trade costs due to stricter security measures.

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This paper is the first to uncover in details the impact of different families of disasters on exports from 1979 to 2000 (storms, floods, earthquakes and changes in temperatures). Besides, our paper is the first to compare in a quasi-systematic way the results across the two datasets at hand, the standard \emph{EM-DAT} data and \emph{GeoMet} data, a newly available dataset based on geophysical and meteorological data (\citet{Felbermayr2013} and \citet{Felbermayr2014}). We run series of regressions while accounting progressively for the characteristics of products (all traded goods v/s agriculture ones), the characteristics of the country (size, level of development) and the intensity of the catastrophes. When pooling all countries, and all types of disasters, we do not find any statistical impact on exports. But when focusing on each of them separately and on agricultural goods, the occurrence of an earthquake appears to reduce exports of about 3\%, regardless of its location. A windstorm shock, even when it happens to be very severe, has hardly any impact. A flood, on its side, is estimated to reduce export flows of a small country by nearly 3\%. The effect of changes in temperatures is ambiguous. All in all, except for temperatures related disasters, the results are consistent across both datasets, EM-DAT and GeoMet, although they appear to be slightly more in line with our expectations in the case of GeoMet.

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Cet article propose une mise en perspective théorique de la localisation du travail et des entreprises en lien avec la compétitivité des territoires. La localisation est ainsi analysée sous trois angles : en lien avec la mobilité de la main-d’œuvre et ceci dans une approche d’économie géographique ; à travers les choix de localisation des firmes, dans une perspective de commerce international et de localisation des multinationales ; et par rapport au développement et à la concentration des services, des technologies et des connaissances. Ces approches complémentaires nous permettent de dresser une analyse globale des dynamiques de localisation, phénomène qui sera amplement analysé par la suite dans les articles présents dans ce numéro spécial.

Les négociateurs commerciaux de l'OMC ont identifié quatre modes d'échange de services : l'échange transfrontière, la consommation à l'étranger, la présence commerciale et la présence de personnes physiques. Les entraves aux échanges de services s'étendent donc aux réglementations domestiques. Nous examinons la manière dont les équations de gravité expliquent les déterminants des échanges de services et comment elles permettent l'évaluation des gains liés à la suppression de ces entraves. Au préalable, nous exposons comment les barrières aux échanges de services sont surestimées. Nous montrons ensuite que si les équations de gravité expliquent bien les opérations internationales de services, les méthodes utilisées tendent à surestimer les effets des entraves aux échanges et donc la croissance des flux d'exportations et d'IDE de services attendue de la libéralisation.

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DR LEO - Working paper 2022-07

DR LEO - Working paper 2022-14

2024-13

With a fall of 42% of Foreign Direct investment (FDI) flows worldwide in 2020, the Covid-19 crisis has raised important concerns about the impact of this source of financing on economic growth in Africa, in particular through its effect on national investment. While FDI is often seen as a welcome boost to economic growth and long run development, its net effect may depend critically on whether it stimulates domestic private investment or crowds it out and over what time horizon. This paper investigates the relationship between FDI and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), using a sample of 40 countries over 1980-2017. To disentangle short term from long-term dynamics, our empirical analysis is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Full Effects (DFE).

With a fall of 42% of Foreign Direct investment (FDI) flows worldwide in 2020, the Covid-19 crisis has raised important concerns about the impact of this source of financing on economic growth in Africa, in particular through its effect on national investment. While FDI is often seen as a welcome boost to economic growth and long run development, its net effect may depend critically on whether it stimulates domestic private investment or crowds it out and over what time horizon. This paper investigates the relationship between FDI and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), using a sample of 40 countries over 1980-2017. To disentangle short term from long-term dynamics, our empirical analysis is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Full Effects (DFE). We find that FDI has little effect on private investment in the short run but significant crowding-in effects in the long-run: a one percentage point increase of the share of FDI in GDP leads to a 0.29% rise in private investment, in the long run. Our results also show that FDI interacts with public domestic investment to boost these positive effects. Finally, we show that the impact of FDI on domestic private investment is stronger in non-natural resource exporting diversified countries as opposed to non-diversified commodity exporters.

Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for countries with low border barriers, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products.

This paper tries to identify the different channels through which natural disasters affect exports of agricultural products in developing countries. It begins by presenting a simple theory set-up that highlights the different mechanisms at work. It then takes some predictions of this theory to the test. Matching different sets of disaster variables (occurrence and intensity) from EM-DAT and GeoMet datasets with trade data at the 6 digit-HS level, our first estimate point to a negative but statistically non-robust relation between disasters and agricultural exports. Following our theory set-up, we attribute this result to mixing three confounding effects with different magnitudes and opposite signs on trade. Using other sources of data, we could then identify two of the effects: a negative and statistically significant effect of disasters on exports when they occur in rural areas and at growing seasons times; and a positive and (very) robust relation with exports towards culturally close partners and where an important diaspora is settled. This points to show that disasters are redistributing exports across partners. However, the ’solidarity’- consistent effect does not seem to last over time. All in all, notably due to the limited physical impact of most of the disasters over time and space and thanks to the pain relief provided by culturally close importers, natural disasters do not appear to make small developing countries suffer that much economically.

D’importants gains d’augmentation des exportations et de croissance sont attendus de la libéralisation des échanges de services dans les pays africains. La taille et la croissance du secteur tertiaire et l’ampleur des barrières existantes semblent justifier cette attente. Nous analysons les modèles d’équilibre général calculable développés pour mesurer les effets de l’ouverture des marchés de services en Afrique. Nous montrons que les résultats de ces modèles doivent être considérés avec prudence. Plutôt que de préconiser l’harmonisation des réglementations, il peut s’avérer préférable de rechercher des pistes pour accroître la productivité et réduire les coûts dans les services. La réalisation de réformes domestiques s’avère un préalable nécessaire pour éviter que les rentes des monopoles domestiques ne soient transférées à des oligopoles étrangers.

Theoretically, welfare gains from liberalisation of trade in services arise from falling prices and technology transfers from foreign firms. Empirically, due to the role of the regulatory framework in barriers to trade in services ('behind-the-border' laws) substantial gains are only reached when entry of foreign firms is widened. We have a close look at the way impediments to trade in services affect cost-price margin in telecommunication in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. First, we criticise the measurements of barriers in trade in services, which tend towards an overestimation. Second, we show that analyses bend to overvalue the impact of regulations on the cost-price margin in telecommunications for MENA countries, in line with inadequate econometric techniques or underestimation of the effect of technical progress. Therefore, the best way in terms of trade in services liberalisation is to opt for a flexible, qualitative interpretation of the quantitative results and rank ordering of countries.

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While services represent nearly 70 % of value added in all OECD countries, only a fifth of trade in goods and services is due to cross-border supply of services. Then internationalisation of services occurs by commercial presence of firms in host countries, its impact on white collar employment is limited and only unskilled workers incur falls in wage. As for temporary movement of people, Mode 4 is very difficult to measure either by trade or migration statistics. In the paper we show that the divergence between the preponderance of services in national activities and its weakness in international transactions is due to the importance of non tradeable industries, for which the degree is week and contrasts with activities implied in international competition.

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