Christophe RAULT

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Dans cet article, nous analysons l’impact économique des migrations internationales en Tunisie sur la période 1970–2017. L’estimation de modèles vectoriels autorégressifs (VAR), en accord avec les propriétés statistiques des séries, montre qu’un choc exogène qui augmente le taux de solde migratoire a un effet positif et significatif sur la production nationale par habitant, tandis que les effets sur le taux d’emploi ne sont pas significatifs. Le choc migratoire a un effet positif et significatif sur la productivité, et ne réduit pas la rémunération moyenne des salariés.

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We examine the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) transmission over the Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV) for 8 Emerging Market Economies (EME) using the recent panel VAR methodology of Abrigo and Love (Stata Journal 16:778-804, 2016). The econometric investigation reveals that: (a) both domestic and US-EPU shocks exert positive effects on the ERV, (b) the contribution of the US-EPU to the ERV fluctuations overcomes the own EPU's share, (c) the ERV acts as a possible transmission channel of the US-EPU to the domestic economic activity, (d) the domestic EPU increases in response to a higher US-EPU and vice versa and (e) the latter is surprisingly and markedly sensitive to EME macroeconomic conditions. Our findings are robust to different sensitivity analyses, provide novel insights into EPU international spillovers, and have interesting policy implications for EME decisions makers and investors.

This paper develops a pseudo-panel approach to examine household electricity demand behavior through the household life cycle and its response to income variations to help strengthen the energy policy-making process. Our empirical methodology is based on three rich independent microdata surveys (the National Housing Surveys), which are representative of the French housing sector. The resulted sample covers the 2006-2016 period. Using within estimations, this paper finds striking evidence that the income elasticity of French residential electricity demand is 0.22, averaged over our four cohorts of generations. In light of other works, our estimate stands in the lower range. The empirical results also show that residential electricity consumption follows an inverted U-shaped distribution as a function of the age of the household's head. Most notably, it appears that households at the mid-point of their life cycle are relatively the largest consumers of electricity. This outcome has important implications for policy-making. Any public policy aimed at reducing household energy consumption should consider this differentiation in consumption according to the position of households over the life cycle, and therefore target as priority households at the highest level of consumption.

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We examine causal links between energy consumption and health indicators (Mortality rate under-5, life expectancy, greenhouse effect, and government expenditure per capita) for a sample of 16 African countries over the period 1971-2010 (according to availability of countries' data). We use the panel-data approach of Kónya (2006), which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Our results show that health and energy consumption are strongly linked in Africa. Unilateral causality is found from energy consumption to life expectancy and child under-5 mortality for Senegal, Morocco, Benin, DRC, Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa. At the same time, we found a bilateral causality between energy consumption and health indicators in Nigeria. In particular, our findings suggest that electricity consumption Granger causes health outcomes for several African countries.

This paper offers a reappraisal of the impact of migration on economic growth for 22 OECD countries between 1986–2006, and relies on a unique data set we compiled that allows us to distinguish net migration of the native- and foreign-born populations by skill level. Specifically, after introducing migration in an augmented Solow-Swan model, we estimate a dynamic panel model using a system of generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) to address the risk of endogeneity bias in the migration variables. Two important findings emerge from our analysis. First, there exists a positive impact of migrants’ human capital on GDP per capita, and second, a permanent increase in migration flows has a positive effect on GDP per worker. Moreover, the growth impact of immigration is high even in countries that have non-selective migration policies.

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We contribute to the literature by studying the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock markets in the United States over the period 1900\textendash2014. We show that an increase in policy uncertainty reduces significantly stock returns and that this effect is stronger and persistent during extreme volatility periods.

We make use of a bootstrap panel analysis of causality between energy use and economic growth for a sample of sixteen African countries over the period 1988-2010. Our results show that growth and energy use are strongly linked in Africa. However, African countries are heterogeneous and there is no "one way" recommendation about energy-growth relationship that may work for all countries in Africa.

This paper examines empirically the interaction between immigration and host country economic conditions. We employ panel vector autoregression (VAR) techniques for a large annual data set on 22 OECD countries over the period 1987–2009. The VAR approach addresses the endogeneity problem by allowing for endogenous interactions between the variables in the system. Our results provide evidence of migration contribution to host economic prosperity (positive impact on GDP per capita and negative impact on aggregate unemployment, native- and foreign-born unemployment rates). We also find that migration is influenced by host economic conditions (migration responds positively to host GDP per capita and negatively to host total unemployment rate).

This paper examines the causality relationship between immigration, unemployment and economic growth of the host country. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach of Kònya (2006) that is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows one to test for Granger-causality on each individual panel member separately by taking into account the contemporaneous correlation across countries. Using annual data over the 1980–2005 period for 22 OECD countries, we find that, only in Portugal, unemployment negatively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause unemployment. On the other hand, our results show that, in four countries (France, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom), growth positively causes immigration, whereas in any country, immigration does not cause growth.

Studying the impact of economic growth on the environment in the context of developing countries has become of increasing economic importance in recent years. Alarming international reports show that pollutants emissions are growing at their highest level ever, particularly in the South countries. This paper implements recent bootstrap panel unit root tests and cointegration techniques to investigate the relationship between Sulfur dioxide emissions and real GDP for 12 MENA countries over the period 1981–2005. Our investigations lead to the result that no evidence is found for the EKC hypothesis for 10 country of the region. However, the EKC hypothesis is valid for the case of Egypt and Tunisia; the two most industrialised and diversified economies in our sample. At the same time, our findings show that EKC is not valid for the region when considered as a whole.

Using annual data for 18 OECD countries over the period 1980-2004, we investigate how labour and financial factors interact to determine unemployment. We estimate a dynamic panel model using the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). It is shown that the impact of financial variables depends strongly on the labour market context. Increased market capitalization as well as decreased banking concentration reduce unemployment if the level of labour market regulation, union density, and coordination in wage bargaining is low. Increasing intermediated credit and banking concentration is beneficial for employment when the degree of labour market regulation, union density, and wage coordination is high. These results suggest that the respective virtues of intermediated and market-based finance are crucially tied to the labour market context.

This article extends the recent findings of Liu (2005), Ang (2007), Apergis et al. (2009) and Payne (2010) by implementing recent bootstrap panel unit root tests and cointegration techniques to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and real GDP for 12 Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) over the period 1981-2005. Our results show that in the long-run energy consumption has a positive significant impact on CO2 emissions. More interestingly, we show that real GDP exhibits a quadratic relationship with CO2 emissions for the region as a whole. However, although the estimated long-run coefficients of income and its square satisfy the EKC hypothesis in most studied countries, the turning points are very low in some cases and very high in other cases, hence providing poor evidence in support of the EKC hypothesis. CO2 emission reductions per capita have been achieved in the MENA region, even while the region exhibited economic growth over the period 1981-2005. The econometric relationships derived in this paper suggest that future reductions in CO2 emissions per capita might be achieved at the same time as GDP per capita in the MENA region continues to grow.

We explore whether fi nance influences the impact of labour market institutions on unemployment. Using a data set of 18 OECD countries over 1980-2004, we estimate a panel Vector AutoRegressive model. We check whether causalities from labour market variables (labour market regulation, union density, coordination in wage bargaining) to unemployment are a ffected by the introduction of financial factors (stock market capitalisation, intermediated credit and banking concentration) in the estimation. In Australia, Belgium, Italy, Japan and Spain, accounting for financial indicators mitigates the benefi ts of labour market flexibilization or makes it harmful to employment. In Austria, Canada, Finland and Portugal, it reduces its detrimental impact or makes it bene cial. In Ireland and Netherlands, both e ffects prevail, depending on the labour market indicator used.

Starting July the 1st 1997, Bulgaria adopted a Currency Board (CB) monetary system. This paper aims at investigating if the adoption of the CB monetary system, which involves the cost of losing monetary autonomy, has provided a relatively better (with respect to other CEEC) monetary integration of Bulgaria with the European Monetary Union (EMU). Since Bulgarian monetary variables are endogenous under a CB, we focus on the ECB and FED interest rates as the main sources on monetary volatility. First, we find that ECB shocks are more rapidly absorbed and have less significant impact of domestic variables, with respect to other external monetary shocks (FED rate changes). Second, the responses of Bulgarian variables following changes in the ECB interest rate present lower persistence and significance, with respect to what the previous literature emphasized for other CEEC with monetary autonomy. This latter result still holds when accounting for different sources of cross-country heterogeneity outlined in the literature, thus supporting that the adoption of the CB may have worked as a rather good device in terms of integration of Bulgaria into the EMU.

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU-15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 61(1):653-670, 1999; Econom Theory 20(3):597-625, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence, European Central Bank, Working Paper 591, 2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (Econ Lett 97(3):185-190, 2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While estimations point to fiscal sustainability being an issue in some countries, fiscal policy was sustainable both for the EU-15 panel set, and within sub-periods (1970-1991 and 1992-2006).

The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4, i.e. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania) and model their effects on trade flows by treating the agreement variable as endogenous. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to isolate and eliminate the potential endogeneity bias of the agreement variable is the fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) technique. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. This finding is robust to the inclusion in the sample of a group of control countries (specifically Belarus, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine) that did not sign an FTA. Besides, we show that trade growth after the FTA agreement with the EU was signed exceeded trade growth of the control group of countries, which did not become members.

The aim of this paper is to apply recently developed panel cointegration techniques proposed by Pedroni (1999, 2004) and generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) to examine the robustness of the PPP concept for a sample of 80 developed and developing countries. We find that strong PPP is verified for OECD countries and weak PPP for MENA countries. However in African, Asian, Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries, PPP does not seem relevant to characterize the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate. Further investigations indicate that the nature of the exchange rate regime doesn't condition the validity of PPP which is more easily accepted in countries with high than low inflation.

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DR LEO - Working paper 2022-11

This paper offers a reappraisal of the impact of migration on economic growth for 22 OECD countries between 1986-2006 and relies on a unique data set we compiled that allows us to distinguish net migration of the native - and foreign - born populations by skill level. Specifically, after introducing migration in an augmented Solow-Swan model, we estimate a dynamic panel model using a system of generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) to address the risk of endogeneity bias in the migration variables. Two important findings emerge from our analysis. First, there exists a positive impact of migrants' human capital on GDP per capita, and second, a permanent increase in migration flows has a positive effect on GDP per worker. Moreover, the growth impact of immigration is high even in countries that have non-selective migration policies.

This paper offers a reappraisal of the impact of migration on economic growth for 22 OECD countries between 1986--2006 and relies on a unique data set we compiled that allows us to distinguish net migration of the native- and foreign-born populations by skill level. Specifically, after introducing migration in an augmented Solow-Swan model, we estimate a dynamic panel model using a system of generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) to address the risk of endogeneity bias in the migration variables. Two important findings emerge from our analysis. First, there exists a positive impact of migrants' human capital on GDP per capita, and second, a permanent increase in migration flows has a positive effect on productivity growth. However, the growth impact of immigration is small even in countries that have highly selective migration policies.

This paper offers a reappraisal of the impact of migration on economic growth for 22 OECD countries between 1986-2006 and relies on a unique data set we compiled that allows us to distinguish net migration of the native-born and foreign-born by skill level. Specifically, after introducing migration in an augmented Solow-Swan model, we estimate a dynamic panel model using a system of generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) to deal with the risk of an endogeneity bias of the migration variables. Two important findings emerge from our analysis. First, there exists a positive impact of migrants' human capital on economic growth. And second, the contribution of immigrants to human capital accumulation tends to dominate the mechanical dilution effect while the net effect is fairly small. This conclusion holds even in countries with highly selective migration policies.

Dans ce papier, nous étudions le niveau de rapprochement des économies du Maghreb vers les économies de l’Europe de l’Ouest. Nous faisons également une comparaison avec le niveau de convergence des Pays d’Europe Centrale et Orientale PECO-5 vers les pays de la zone euro. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons une modélisation VAR Structurelle pour l’identification des chocs d’offre et des chocs de demande. Nous faisons également appel à l’Analyse en composante Principale ACP dans l’étude de la dynamique de convergence. Nos résultats montrent un niveau différencié de rapprochement des économies des pays du Maghreb vers l’Europe : la Tunisie et le Maroc dans une moindre mesure, sont sur le sentier de la convergence et à un niveau qui se rapproche de celui des PECO-5 ; l’Algérie et la Libye restent très éloignés de la convergence en dépit de leur capacités. Ce résultat confirme le rôle important joué par le commerce bilatéral et plus particulièrement celui des produits manufacturés. La convergence de la Tunisie et du Maroc est également le fruit d’une dé-spécialisation de production des secteurs agroalimentaire et textile vers des secteurs moyennement et hautement technologiques.

We explore whether finance influences the impact of labour market institutions on unemployment. Using a data set of 18 OECD countries over 1980-2004, we estimate a panel Vector AutoRegressive model. We check whether causalities from labour market variables (labour market regulation, union density, coordination in wage bargaining) to unemployment are a ffected by the introduction of financial factors (stock market capitalisation, intermediated credit and banking concentration) in the estimation. In Australia, Belgium, Italy, Japan and Spain, accounting for financial indicators mitigates the bene fits of labour market flexibilization or makes it harmful to employment. In Austria, Canada, Finland and Portugal, it reduces its detrimental impact or makes it bene ficial. In Ireland and Netherlands, both e ffects prevail, depending on the labour market indicator used.

This paper examines the causality relationship between immigration, unemployment and economic growth of the host country. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach of Kónya (2006) that is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for Granger-causality on each individual panel member separately by taking into account the contemporaneous correlation across countries. Using annual data over the 1980-2005 period for 22 OECD countries, we find that, only in Portugal, unemployment negatively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause unemployment. On the other hand, our results show that, in four countries (France, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom), growth positively causes immigration, whereas in any country, immigration does not cause growth.

This paper examines empirically the interaction between immigration and host country economic conditions. We employ a panel VAR techniques to use a large annual dataset on 22 OECD countries over the period 1987-2009. The VAR approach allows to addresses the endogeneity problem by allowing the endogenous interaction between the variables in the system. Our results provide evidence of migration contribution to host economic prosperity (positive impact on GDP per capita and negative impact on aggregate unemployment, native-and foreign-born unemployment rates). We also find that migration is influenced by host economic conditions (migration responds positively to host GDP per capita and negatively to host total unemployment rate).

We contribute to the finance literature in two main ways. First, we present a theoretical capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to price assets in different market structures. Second, we use our model to analyze whether when markets are partially segmented using the local or the global CAPM yields significant errors in the estimation of the cost of capital for a sample of firms from developed and emerging countries.

This article contributes to the literature on stock market integration by developing and estimating a capital asset pricing model with segmentation effects in order to assess stock market segmentation and its effects on risk premia at the regional level. We show that the estimated degrees of segmentation vary from one region to anther and over time. Moreover, we establish that compared to developed market regions, emerging market regions have four main dissimilarities: the total risk premiums are significantly higher, more volatile, dominated by regional residual risk factors and reflect mostly regional events. However, in the recent period emerging market regions have become less segmented as a result of liberalization and reforms and the relative magnitude of the premium associated with global factors has increased.

Ce travail utilise les techniques récentes de cointegration en panel et la méthode d'estimation SUR pour tester l'existence d'une relation de long terme entre le prix du pétrole et le cours des actions dans les pays du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe (CCG). Ces pays étant des acteurs majeurs du marché mondial de l'énergie, leurs marchés boursiers devraient être sensibles aux chocs affectant le prix du pétrole. En utilisant une base de données mensuelle couvrant la période allant de janvier 1996 à décembre 2007, notre étude met en évidence, d'une part l'existence d'une relation de cointégration entre le prix du pétrole et le cours des actions dans les pays du CCG, d'autre part, les estimations SUR indiquent que les augmentations du prix du pétrole ont un impact positif sur les rentabilités boursières, sauf en Arabie Saoudite.

We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF specific panel unit root test to investigate the meanreverting behaviour of general government expenditures and revenues ratios. Secondly, we apply the bootstrap panel cointegration techniques that account for the time series and cross-sectional dependencies of the regression error. Thirdly, we check for a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues via SUR analysis. While results imply that public finances were not unsustainable for the EU panel, fiscal sustainability is an issue in most countries, with a below unit estimated coefficient of expenditure in the cointegration relation.

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We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While sustainability may be lacking in individual cases, fiscal policy was overall sustainable both for the EU15 panel set, and within some sub-periods.

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