Return Predictability: Learning from the Cross-Section
Mardi | 2015-05-12 Sully 5, 16h-17h20 Julien PENASSE This paper develops an estimation framework in which the true parameters of international return processes share a common distribution. The model (i) makes e fficient use of the cross-sectional correlation in the residuals, (ii) incorporates cross-sectional information in the estimation process, and (iii) introduces economic constraints on equity premium forecasts. The eff ect on estimation precision is remarkably strong and manifests itself both in- and out-of-sample. Once cross-sectional information is accounted for, […]