Do We Need Ultra-High Frequency Data to Forecast Variances?
Mardi | 2015-10-20 Sully 5 de 16h à 17h20 Denisa BANULESCU-RADU – Bertrand Candelon – Christophe HURLIN – Sébastien LAURENT In this paper we study various MIDAS models in which the future daily variance is directly related to past observations of intraday predictors. Our goal is to determine if there exists an optimal sampling frequency in terms of volatility prediction. Via Monte Carlo simulations we show that in a world without microstructure noise, the best model is the one using […]