Mardi | 2016-06-30 16h00-17h00 en Sully05 Andrea STOIAN – Bettina BöKEMEIER The aim of this study is to investigate debt sustainability in ten Central and Eastern European countries over 1997-2013. Following Burger (2012), we calculate the stabilized debt using the estimates of a fiscal reaction function for a balanced panel with fixed effects. Comparing the stabilized, the effective debt ratios and the historical averages, we can assess debt sustainability in short and in long run

Mercredi | 2016-06-22 12h B103 Les fluctuations de prix ont toujours créé un environnement défavorable aux anticipations correctes des agents économiques. Elles rendent par leur effet, vulnérables lesproducteurs et consommateurs qui dépendent des produits concernés. Or l’un des moyens de réduire la vulnérabilité et la pauvreté en milieu rural est de garantir des prix stables.Les politiques de stabilisation ont pour rôle d’asseoir la stabilité des prix agricoles et des principales denrées. Le présent article teste, à l’aide d’un modèle ARCH, […]

Mardi | 2016-06-21 16h00-17h20 en sully 05 Denisa BANULESCU-RADU The nature of the relationship between trading volume and volatility series has been widely studied but overall, the literature provides mixed results. In this paper, we investigate this issue for the thirty components of the Dow Jones stock market index in light of a recent concept named anti-cointegration. For almost all firms, we show that the most persistent component of both trading volume and volatility series is idiosyncratic and dwarfs a […]

Mercredi | 2016-06-15 12h B103 A venir

Mardi | 2016-06-14 Sully05 16h00-17h20 Jean-Pierre URBAIN – Jan LOHMEYER – Franz PALM – Hanno REUVERS This paper investigates the Focused Information Criterion (Claeskens and Hjort (2003)) in autoregressive models with local misspecification. A main advantage of the FIC is that model selection and/or model averaging is focused on the quantity of interest instead of aiming at some measure of global model fit. The quantity of interest is allowed to be any (su fficiently regular) function of the parameters. We […]

Mardi | 2016-06-07 10h00-11h20 Inmaculada MARTíNEZ-ZARZOSO – Florian JOHANNSEN This paper investigates the determinants of indirect exporting using firm-level data for 27 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Indirect exporting depends on a combination of fixed and variable trade cost factors. We hypothesize that firms that perceive transportation, crime, legal systems and corruption as severe obstacles face higher fixed costs and are more likely to export indirectly and that indirect exporting tends to be a temporary strategy. Econometric models […]

Mardi | 2016-05-31 15h-16h20 en sully05 Florian PELGRIN – Julien HUGONNIER – Pascal ST-AMOUR This paper examines health and wealth distributions under which agents approaching the end of life choose to close down the shop, i.e. a depletion of the health stock is optimally selected (and eventually accelerated), leading to states characterized by indifference between life, and death. We rely on a life cycle model (Hugonnier et al., 2013) with health spending, portfolio, insurance and consumption decisions for which we […]

Mardi | 2016-05-31 16h20-17h40 en Sully05 Yang CHAO – Lung-fei LEE – Xi QU We build a model to analyze censored behaviors for socially associated agents under ageneral form of incomplete information. Employing the analytical tools used by Yang andLee(2014), we find that there is a unique equilibrium when parameters are within a reasonablerange. We utilize the rate of censoring and the average observed outcomes to identifymodel parameters. We suggest estimating the model by the maximum likelihood methodwith inner-loop fixed […]

Mercredi | 2016-05-25 B103-12H Eric YAYI – Alexis DIRER A venir

Mardi | 2016-05-24 16-17h20 salle des thèses Xavier RAURICH – Edgar CRUZ In the second half of the twenty century we observe two important patterns of structural change; first, a large shift of employment from the agriculture and manufacturing sectors to the service sector, and, second, a sustained increase in the amount of time devoted to leisure activities. We relate these two patterns of structural change by arguing that during leisure time we consume recreational services. The observed increase in […]