Mercredi | 2017-03-29 B103 12h30 Leonardo Eric CALCAGNO In recent years, Argentina has reached nearly universal retirement benefits coverage. This was achieved through two successive pension moratoriums, implemented in the third quarter of 2006 and the third quarter of 2014, which allowed buying back missing contribution years and retire even with incomplete careers. In principle, the effect of moratoriums on unregistered employment is unclear: they may discourage retirement contributions by opening an alternative way for retiring, but they also may […]

Mardi | 2017-03-28 16h00-17h20 salle des thèses Joroen RAMBOUTS – Lars STENTOFT – FRANCESCO VIOLANTE We develop a joint framework linking the physical variance and its risk neutral expectation implying variance risk premia that are persistent, appropriately reacting to changes in level and variability of the variance and naturally satisfying the sign constraint. Using option market data and realized variances, our model allows to infer the occurrence and size of extreme variance events, and construct indicators signalling agents sentiment towards […]

Mardi | 2017-03-21 16h00-17h20 salle des thèses Olivier BEAUMAIS – Dominique PRUNETTI Although the opportunity cost of time spent recycling has long been recognized as a key determinant of household recycling participation, very few empirical studies have attempted to provide estimates of it. In this paper, we propose a model of household recycling that, while including pecuniary and non pecuniary motives for decisions, such as social and moral norms or warm-glow, reveals heterogeneous values of saving time from recycling (VSTR). […]

Mardi | 2017-03-14 16h00-17h20 salle des thèses Rachidi KOTCHONI – Marine CARRASCO Generalized Empirical Likelihood (GEL) estimators are solved by converting a high dimensional primal optimization problem into a dual Minimum Discrepancy problem with fewer parameters. When the GEL problem is subject to a continuum of restrictions, the duality relationships break down as the system of constraints becomes ill-posed. Duality is restored by solving a relaxed problem that leads to a family of Regularized GEL (RGEL) estimators. We show that […]

Mercredi | 2017-03-08 B103 12h Nicolas CLOOTENS This paper studies the behavior of cross-country growth rates with respect to resource abundance and dependence. We reject the linear model commonly used for growth regressions in favor of a multiple regime alternative. Using a proper sample splitting methodology, we show that countries exhibit different behavior with respect to natural resources depending on their initial development. In high-income economies, natural resources play a minor role in explaining the differences in national growth rates. […]

Mardi | 2017-03-07 16h00-17h20 salle des thèses Patrick VILLIEU – Maxime MENUET – Alexandru MINEA This paper presents a theoretical setup for studying nonlinear effects of pubic debt in an endogenous growth model with cycles. Our results are threefold. (i) From a long run perspective, our model exhibits multiplicity, i.e. a high-growth and a low-growth balanced growth path (BGP), due to the interaction between the government’s budget constraint and households optimal saving behavior. (ii) Turning to local dynamics, while the […]

Mercredi | 2017-03-01 B103 12h Nicolae-Bogdan IANC We estimate, following a PVAR methodology, the fiscal multipliers of the E(M)U members and candidates. We perform our analysis on four groups of European countries, focusing specifically on CEE countries as Albania, Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey. Our results suggest that, in the short run, the EU candidates exhibit the highest values of their spending multipliers. Furthermore, being an EU member seems to affect in particular the spending multiplier, in the short run. Tax […]

Mardi | 2017-02-28 16h00-17h20 en salle des thèses Daniel MIRZA – Rémi BAZILLIER – Francesco MAGRIS This paper shows that policies which favor (im)-migration may actually provoke unexpected consequences by increasing the outflows of previously settled migrants. To do so, we set a 3-country theory where already settled migrants in one country of residence respond to economic and policy incentives making them move back to their country of origin or a third country. In particular, we show that outmigration from […]

Mercredi | 2017-02-15 B103 12h This paper studies the impact of natural disasters on exports of agricultural products by developing countries. We first highlight many channels (domestic supply and demand, changes in relative costs/prices and changes in preferences of importers) through which disasters affect exports, making their relationship very ambiguous. We then run a series of regressions to see how disasters affects first, exports to the rest of world and second, exports across partners. Using different sets of disaster variables […]

Mardi | 2017-02-07 Salle des thèses de 16h00 à 17h20 Guillaume VUILLEMEY – Vincent BIGNON We provide the first empirical description of the failure of a derivatives clearinghouse.We use novel, hand-collected, archive data to study risk managementincentives of the Paris commodity futures clearinghouse around its failure in 1974.We do not find evidence of lenient risk management during the commodity priceboom of 1973-1974. However, we show severe distortions of risk management incentives,akin to risk-shifting, as soon as prices collapsed and a […]