Mercredi | 2017-02-15 B103 12h This paper studies the impact of natural disasters on exports of agricultural products by developing countries. We first highlight many channels (domestic supply and demand, changes in relative costs/prices and changes in preferences of importers) through which disasters affect exports, making their relationship very ambiguous. We then run a series of regressions to see how disasters affects first, exports to the rest of world and second, exports across partners. Using different sets of disaster variables […]

Mardi | 2017-02-07 Salle des thèses de 16h00 à 17h20 Guillaume VUILLEMEY – Vincent BIGNON We provide the first empirical description of the failure of a derivatives clearinghouse.We use novel, hand-collected, archive data to study risk managementincentives of the Paris commodity futures clearinghouse around its failure in 1974.We do not find evidence of lenient risk management during the commodity priceboom of 1973-1974. However, we show severe distortions of risk management incentives,akin to risk-shifting, as soon as prices collapsed and a […]

Mardi | 2017-01-31 Salle des Thèses de 16h00 à 17h20 Mihai MUTASCU The paper investigates the causality between government revenues and government expenditures in the case of Romania, for the period 1991m1-2015m5, by following the wavelet approach. The study offers detailed information of this connection, for different sub-periods of time and frequencies, emphasizing the lead-lag nexus between variables under cyclical and anti-cyclical shocks. The main findings show that the treasury goals should be controlled by using the individual taxation techniques […]

Mardi | 2017-01-24 Sully05 de 16h00 à 17h20 Nikolay NENOVSKY – Jacques-Marie VASLIN Shadowing the Latin Monetary Union: Interest rates and Debts Dynamics at the Balkans Periphery

Mardi | 2017-01-17 16h00-17h20 en sully05 clément GOULET – Matthieu GARCIN In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for modelling the news impact curve. The news impact curve provides a non-linear relation between past returns and current volatility and thus enables to forecast volatility. Our news impact curve is the solution of a dynamic optimization problem based on variational calculus. Consequently, it is a non-parametric and smooth curve. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such a […]

Mardi | 2017-01-10 16h00-17h20 sully 05 Christophe HURLIN – Sylvain BENOIT – Christophe PERIGNON We identify two main shortcomings in the systemic-risk scoring methodology currently used to identify and regulate Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs). Using newly-disclosed regulatory data for 119 US and international banks, we show that the economic magnitude of the resulting bias turns out to be important. The banks that benefit the most from the bias are custodian banks and (non-) Eurozone banks when the Euro weakens […]

Mardi | 2016-12-13 16-17h20 en sully05 Abdelaati DAOUIA – Stéphane GIRARD – Gilles STUPER We use tail expectiles to estimate alternative measures to the Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), three instruments of risk protection of utmost importance in actuarial science and statistical finance. The concept of expectiles is a least squares analogue of quantiles. Both expectiles and quantiles were embedded in the more general class of M-quantiles as the minimizers of an asymmetric […]

Mardi | 2016-11-29 16-17h20 en sully05 Sessi TOKPAVI – Christophe BOUCHER – Elena Ivona DUMITRESCU This paper is about testing for volatility transmission between financial markets. The potential adverse e ffect of volatility spillover on fi nancial stability is a subject of great importance in the current context of increasing financial integration. We add to this ever-growing literature a new, simple and parsimonious testing procedure for volatility transmission. Our test focuses on extreme (large) values of the latent process of […]

Mardi | 2016-11-22 16h00-17h20 en salle des thèses Simone RIGHI – Karoly TAKACS Previous studies show that direct and indirect reciprocity are good candidates to explain the fundamental problem of evolution of cooperation between unrelated individuals. The importance of different forms of reciprocity, however, might be differentiated and one form could potentially drive out the feasibility of others. In the Prisoner’s Dilemma played in random networks we show that when present, direct reciprocity gains dominance over network-based indirect reciprocity as […]

Mardi | 2016-11-15 Salle des thèses Gilles DUFRENOT – Anne-Charlotte PARET This paper provides evidence that the external debt-to-fiscal revenue ratio in the emerging countries follows a power-law distribution. Such a distribution reflects the fact that external debt distress or debt crises correspond to extreme events that have been found to happen fairly often. We formally test the hypothesis of a power-law, going further than the usual visual inspection of the distribution of the variable of interest on a doubly […]