Mardi | 2017-09-26 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Yeliz YALCIN – Hakan BERUMENT – Julide YILDIRIM This paper investigates the effect of inflation uncertainty innovations on inflation over time by considering the monthly United States data for the time period 1976-2006. In order to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty innovation on inflation, a Stochastic Volatility in Mean model (SVM) has been employed. SVM models are generally used to capture the innovation to inflation uncertainty, which cannot be achieved […]

HORY Marie-Pierre « Essais sur la politique budgétaire : Multiplicateurs et interactions budgétaires » (Sous la direction de Grégory Levieuge), soutenue le 1er décembre 2017. CLOOTENS Nicolas « Trois Essais sur les Relations de Long Terme entre croissance et Environnement » (Sous la direction de Mouez FODHA et Xavier GALIÈGUE), soutenue le 19 octobre 2017. TAGNE Christian Rodrigue « Les pensions de réversion en France : équivalent patrimonial des droits à la retraite, impacts des réformes et niveau de vie des pensionné(e)s » (Sous les directions d’Alexis DIRER […]

Mardi | 2017-09-19 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 This paper introduces Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) to panel regressions suitable for analysis with GMM of the Arellano-Bond form. As MIDAS specification tests are lacking, even in univariate contexts, our proposed methods statistically embed specification checks. We proceed via confidence set estimation for the MIDAS parameter for which empty outcomes signal lack of fit. Conformably, simultaneous and partialled-out confidence sets for the regression coefficient are proposed that address the unidentified boundary […]

Mercredi | 2017-09-06 B103 12h Marie-Pierre HORY – Grégory LEVIEUGE – Daria ONORI After presenting an empirical evidence of the negative impact of foreign denominated debt on the fiscal multiplier, this paper develops a two-country DSGE model with sticky prices, imperfect and incomplete international financial markets and a financial accelerator à la Bernanke et al. 1999. Following an increase in public spending, the real exchange rate depreciates. In the case where firms are indebted in foreign currency, the depreciation leads […]

Mardi | 2017-07-11 16h00-17h20 en salle des thèses Claudiu ALBULESCU – Dominique PÉPIN This paper tests the money demand stability in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, comparing two competing models, namely the Cagan’s (1956) closed-economy money demand model, and the Albulescu et al.’s (2017) open-economy model adapted for the CEE countries. The purpose is to see if the money demand is more stable in a generalized, open-economy model, which considers a currency substitution effect. Further, we check to what […]

Mardi | 2017-07-04 15h30-16h50 en SULLY5 Usha NAIR-REICHERT – Richard J. CEBULA – Mpaza KAPEMBWA Many states in the US have experienced a large influx of undocumented immigrants over the past two decades. This phenomenon has created new demands on the educational systems dealing with higher education at the state level, resulting in several state-level educational policy reforms. In several cases, these state-level policy reforms promote access to higher education for undocumented immigrants who have completed high school; however, in […]

Mardi | 2017-06-27 16h00-17h20 en salle des thèses phillipp KETZ We show that the standard approach to inference in the random coefficients logit model suffers from size distortions. The problem arises due to boundary issues and is aggravated when the model is parameterized with respect to standard deviations, which constitutes common practice. For example, in case of a single random coefficient, the asymptotic size of the nominal 95% confidence interval, which is obtained by inverting the two-sided t-test for the […]

Mardi | 2017-06-13 16h00-17h20 en salle des thèses Armen HOVAKIMIAN – Gayané HOVAKIMIAN We investigate the dynamics of observed and target leverage ratios and deviations from the targets. The cross-sectional persistence in observed leverage ratios is driven by highly persistent targets, whereas the time series variation is driven by transitory deviations from targets. Deviations are less persistent for firms that are over-levered and firms that are smaller, younger, focused, or have lower credit ratings. In recessions, excess leverage is less […]

Mardi | 2017-05-30 16h00-17h20 en salle des thèses Olivier CARDI – Peter CLAEYS – Romain RESTOUT This paper develops a two-sector open economy model with imperfect mobility of labor across sectors in order to account for time-series evidence on the aggregate and sectoral effects of a government spending shock. Using a panel of sixteen OECD countries over the period 1970-2007, our VAR evidence shows that a rise in government consumption i) increases hours worked and GDP and produces a simultaneous […]

Mardi | 2017-05-23 16h00-17h20 salle des thèses Christian BROWNLEES – Regis BARNICHON Vector Autoregressions (VAR) and Local Projections (LP) are well established methodologies for the estimation of Impulse Responses (IR). These techniques have complementary features: The VAR approach is more efficient when the model is correctly specified whereas the LP approach is less efficient but more robust to model misspecification. We propose a novel IR estimation methodology – Smooth Local Projections (SLP) – to strike a balance between these approaches. […]