Mardi | 2018-11-13 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Andreea MORARU-ARFIRE – Michel DUBOIS – Zana GRIGALIūNIENE This paper investigates the key determinants of analysts’ earnings forecast errors. We find that the firm-analyst relationship is at the core of the process of forecasting earnings. Specifically, we find that there is an unobserved, time-invariant component related to the firm-analyst dimension that explains much of the variance in the absolute forecast errors. This component is not yet captured by the existing observable […]

Mercredi | 2018-11-08 Salle B103 – 12h15 Raphaëlle BELLANDO – Laura-Dona CAPOTA – Sébastien GALANTI Fonds obligataires français : fragilités engendrées par la relation flux-performance

Mercredi | 2018-10-25 Salle B103 – 12h00 Olessia CAILLÉ – Louis RAFFESTIN We provide a model in which banks that share similar portfolios have an incentive to provide each other with favorable lending conditions, in order to avoid fire sales. This mechanism helps to explain the relatively low reaction of interest rates to rising risk in short-term unsecured lending markets during the 2008-2009 crisis. Nevertheless, systemic risk is not necessarily lower when similar banks act supportively, because increased lending between […]

Mardi | 2018-10-23 Salle des thèses 17h – 18h20 Laurent LE MAUX – Emmanuel CARRé Although the literature has analyzed the role of the Federal Reserve as the global lender of last resort in 2007-2009, many aspects of the Dollar Swap Lines to the European Central Bank need further exploration. Using data from both central banks and transcripts of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meetings, we provide original evidence about alloted amounts and interest rates on dollar provision by the […]

Mercredi | 2018-10-18 Salle B103 – 12h00 Robert Christian Serge MEBENGA M’ENAM Dans ce travail, nous procédons à une évaluation des canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire dans la CEMAC à l?aide d?un modèle FAVAR (Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regressive) sur données trimestrielles. Les simulations effectuées sur les taux d?intérêt font apparaître de faibles impacts sur l?activité et les prix. Seules les innovations de masse monétaire présentent de réels effets sur ces variables. Nous exploitons ensuite les propriétés relatives […]

Mardi | 2018-10-09 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Isabelle SALLE – Cars HOMMES – Bruce MCGOUGH – George EVANS We consider boundedly rational agents who do not plan over the infinite future but make trading plans at a finite, arbitrary horizon. We investigate the role of that horizon in the price dynamics of an asset in a Lucas tree model. We then design a laboratory experiment to confront our theoretical predictions to the behaviors of human subjects. Short-horizon markets […]

Mercredi | 2018-10-05 Salle B103 – 12h00 Jose David GARCIA REVELO – Yannick LUCOTTE – Florian PRADINES-JOBET The Great Recession during the late 2000s and early 2010s has led to a strengthening of macroprudential policies over the world in order to address systemic risk concerns. However, the effectiveness of those measures remains unclear. The existing literature fails to demonstrate clearly that macro-prudential policies address effectively financial vulnerabilities. Moreover, the impact of these policies is often assessed regardless of the monetary […]

Mardi | 2018-10-02 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Paolo ROBERTI – Matteo CERVELLATI – Giorgio GULINO This work studies the effect of the political fragmentation in a ruling coalition on fiscal policies. In more fragmented coalitions parties have an incentive to overspend, free riding on deficit. At the same time, a larger political fragmentation reduces the incentives of parties to tax their constituents, therefore decreasing total taxation. Using data on Italian municipalities, the paper exploits the random allocation of […]

Mardi | 2018-09-26 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Anjeza KADILLI – Jaya KRISHNAKUMAR This article develops a flexible econometric framework to investigate the comovement between two endogenous variables within a nonlinear simultaneous equation model. The model controls also for indirect dependence which intervenes through common observed and unobserved factors. The comovement is modeled as a smooth and potentially asymmetric function of the magnitude of the endogenous variable. The threshold at which a shock is transmitted is estimated with the […]

Thèses soutenues en 2018 CALCAGNO Leonardo « Argentina’s social security system : a dynamic microsimulation model for projecting its sustainability, adequacy and redistributive impact« , (sous les directions d’Alexis DIRER et Anne LAVIGNE), soutenue le 11 décembre 2018. BORDIER-LE-BERRIGAUD Marie-Laure « Enjeux organisationnels et managériaux du Projet, le cas du Projet Associatif d’une fédération départementale d’associations », (sous les directions de Thierry Baudassé et Philippe EYNAUD (Univ. Paris 1), soutenue le 7 décembre 2018. MARAKBI Réda « Institutional Quality, Fiscal efficiency and Macroeconomic Performance » (sous les directions de Patrick […]