Mercredi | 2019-10-10 Salle B103 – 12h00 Hugo ORIOLA The literature dealing with the political impact on monetary authority is marked by an ongoing discussion. This paper aims to prove that politically induced cycles in the monetary policy called political monetary cycles (PMC) exist in reality. We find evidence that such a phenomenon is observable in both developed and developing countries. Moreover, this result is confirmed regardless the level of independence of the central bank. In addition, we examine if […]

Mardi | 2019-10-08 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Colombe LADREIT DE LACHARRIèRE – Jérémie COHEN-SETTON – Egor GORNOSTAY This paper estimates the effects of fiscal stimulus on economic activity using a novel database on large fiscal expansions for 17 OECD countries for the period 1960–2006. The database is constructed by combining the statistical approach to identifying large shifts in fiscal policy with narrative evidence from contemporaneous policy documents. When correctly identified, large fiscal stimulus packages are found to have […]

Mercredi | 2019-09-26 Salle B103 – 12h00 Robert Christian Serge MEBENGA M’ENAM Nous nous proposons dans ce travail, d’estimer une règle opérationnelle de conduite permettant aux responsables de la BEAC de préserver la stabilité des prix tout en limitant les écarts du PIB par rapport à sa cible. Pour ce faire, nous optimisons une fonction-objectif conforme au mandat de la BEAC. Nous dérivons ensuite le taux d’inflation optimal et effectuons des simulations sur le paramètre d’arbitrage entre la variabilité de […]

Mardi | 2019-09-24 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Isabelle RABAUD – VOLKER NITSCH Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. […]

Mardi | 2019-09-17 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Cyriac GUILLAUMIN – Salem Boubakri – Alexandre SILANINE The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the real effective exchange rate misalignments and the real commodity price volatilities in a sample of 46 commodity-exporting countries, taking into account the level of financial development as the transition variable. We first estimate the currency misalignments as the deviation of the observed real effective exchange rates from their equilibrium values estimated […]

Mardi | 2019-09-12 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Gerhard TOWENS – Radoslaw STEFANSKI – Marta TROYA MARTINEZ International contracts are difficult to enforce, especially in countries with weak institutions. Thus, oil rich countries can hold up international oil firms by renegotiating taxes once the investment is sunk. If future gains from trade exist, countries can devise a self-enforcing agreement instead. We use elections to show that governments in countries with weak institutions indeed face a binding self-enforceability constraint, while […]

Mardi | 2019-07-09 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Supriya KAPOOR We study the effects of the US Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase programs on bank liquidity creation. Banks create liquidity when they transform the liquid reserves resulted from quantitative easing into illiquid assets. As the composition of banks’ loan portfolio affects the amount of liquidity it creates, the impact of the different rounds of quantitative easing on liquidity creation is not a priori clear. Using a difference-in-difference identification strategy, […]

Mardi | 2019-06-27 Salle des thèses 10h30 – 12h00 Mehmet PINAR – Thanasis STENGOS The determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) have been extensively studied. Even though, there is extensive research on the determinants of FDI flows, most of this research is based on the effects of host country characteristics on FDI flows, and there is little research on how neighboring country characteristics play a role in FDI flows to host countries. This paper analyzes the association between democracy level […]

Mardi | 2019-06-25 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Sandrine KABLAN L’objectif principal de cet article est de tester une hypothèse nouvelle en construisant une variable originale selon laquelle la maturité des banques centrales(BC) ou encore l’expérience des BC influence les performances économiques des Etats contemporains. Nous définissons la maturité de la BC comme la différence entre l’année 2010 et son année de création. Notre hypothèse reste valide même en contrôlant par des variables économiques, institutionnelles, historiques et socioculturelles. De […]