Mardi | 2020-01-21 Salle B103 16h – 17h20 Leonardo Eric CALCAGNO Argentina’s National Social Security Administration (ANSES), the country’s main social security scheme, lacks official projections of its future expenses or income. This hinders the study of the system’s sustainability, and makes it impossible to evaluate ex ante the impact of social security reforms either on social security accounts or on its beneficiaries. This paper presents the dynamic Microsimulation model for Social Security in Argentina (MISSAR): its general architecture, input […]

Mercredi | 2020-01-16 Salle B103 – 12h00 Leo Spencer KEUNGNE KOUOTANG Ce travail s’est intéressé à la définition opérationnelle du concept de stabilité monétaire à la Banque des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale (BEAC). Trois approches complémentaires d’analyse de la réaction du taux directeur de la BEAC ont été mobilisées à cet effet : (i) une analyse descriptive des corrélations linéaires entre le taux directeur de la BEAC et des indicateurs représentatifs de l’ensemble d’informations décisionnelles de politique monétaire, (ii) une […]

Mardi | 2020-01-14 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Catherine BROS-BOBIN – Véronique GILLE – François MANIQUET Policy debates have shown a tendency to take the empowering effect of female labour supply for granted. This assumption in grounded in theoretical models of intra-household bargaining, where a woman’s autonomy is correlated with her bargaining power that in turn depends on either her outside option or threat point. However, using Indian panel data we show that an increase in the number of […]

Mardi | 2020-01-07 Salle des thèses 16h-17h20 Yannick LUCOTTE – Jose David GARCIA REVELO – Florian PRADINES-JOBET Considering a sample of 37 emerging and advanced economies from 2000Q1 to 2014Q4, we empirically assess how effective macroprudential policies are in curbing domestic credit growth, and whether their effectiveness is affected by monetary policy conditions. We obtain three important results. First our findings suggest in line with previous research that an overall tightening in macroprudential policies is associated with a reduction in […]

Mardi | 2019-12-10 B103 16h 17h20 This paper analyses the relationship between a set of knowledge indicators capturing the degree of variety of the local knowledge base focusing on environmental based patents’ technological combinations and the creation of innovative firms specialised in the environmental field in France. Based on a firm-level microdata from DIANE (Bureau van Dijk) and patents information from the OECD REGPAT (2018) database for the period 2003 and 2013, main results show that unrelated knowledge variety for […]

Mardi | 2019-12-03 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Hendrik KRUSE – Thais NUNEZ-ROCHA – Camélia TURCU In this paper, we investigate the claim that rich countries use development aid to ensure access to natural resources. We provide a theoretical model that suggests that even an altruistic donor may be inclined to allocate a higher share of their aid expenditure on infrastructure and other trade promoting measures if they rely on the recipient’s resource exports for their own production. We […]

Mardi | 2019-11-26 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Franck JOVANOVIC Le séminaire a pour objectif de montrer le rôle précurseur du LEO, et en particulier de Georges Gallais-Hamonno, dans l’introduction de l’économie financière en France parmi les économistes français au milieu des années 1970. L’Institut orléanais de finance, ancêtre du LEO, est en effet le premier laboratoire français à une époque où cette discipline est délaissée par les économistes français, laissant le champ libre aux gestionnaires français pendant plus […]

Mardi | 2019-11-05 Salle des thèses 16h-17h20 Financial institutions increasingly rely on predictive machine learning models to detect fraudulent transactions. Two main challenges when building a supervised tool for fraud detection are the imbalance or skewness of the data and the various costs for different types of miscalissification. We discuss techniques to solve the imbalance issue and present a cost-sensitive logistic regression algorithm.

Mercredi | 2019-10-24 Salle B103 – 12h00 Tobignaré YABRE This paper analyses the growth effect of various components of public expenditure in interaction with numerical fiscal rules. We estimate a dynamic panel model for 92 developed and developing countries using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique. We provide a more systematic empirical evidence than available hitherto defending that the adoption of a fiscal rule generates a shift on the composition of government expenditure that may increase the growth rate. […]

Mardi | 2019-10-22 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 We provide a bank-run model in which confidence is proxied by the noise around the estimation by depositors of the distribution of the asset portfolio of their bank in t = 0. The probability that a bank i experiences a run in t = 1 depends on the realized returns of the other banks due to informational and balance sheet linkages between financial institutions. Low confidence is found to foster informational […]