Mardi | 2021-03-30 16H00 – Webinar Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU We discuss cointegration relationships when covariance stationary observables exhibit unbalanced integration orders. Least squares type estimates of the long run coefficient are expected to converge either to 0 or to infinity if one does not account for the true unknown unbalance parameter. We propose a class of narrow-band weighted non-linear least squares estimators of these two parameters and analyse its asymptotic properties. The limit distribution is shown to be Gaussian, albeit singular, […]

Mardi | 2021-03-23 16H00 – Webinar Mathieu COUTTENIER We provide new evidence on how conflict adversely affects economic outcomes. Specifically, we ask whether and how the production network is a first-order determinant of the propagation of conflict to firms outside of conflict zone. Using microdata on Indian manufacturing plants and geo-coded information on Maoist insurgency, we first provide an estimate of the direct exposure to conflict. Firms located in conflict affected areas suffer a loss of 7-11% of their output. […]

Mardi | 2021-03-16 16H00 – Webinar Dylan BOURNY – Daniel MIRZA – Camélia TURCU This paper identifies an externality of multinationals on trade, channeled through their power of promoting cultures across countries. In particular, it shows how multinationals, by selling products embodying cultural information related to their country of origin, actually promote exports of the latter. We argue that IKEA offers an ideal case to identify a multinational’s culture-promotion effect on trade. We build a dataset on IKEA’s presence in […]

Mardi | 2021-03-09 16H00 – Webinar Andrea PRESBITERO Can debt moratoria help countries weather negative shocks? We study the bond market effects of an official debt service suspension endorsed by the international community during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using daily data on sovereign bond spreads and synthetic control methods, we show that countries eligible for official debt relief experience a larger decline in borrowing costs compared to similar, ineligible countries. This decline is stronger for countries that receive a larger relief, […]

Mardi | 2021-02-23 16H00 – Webinar Jonathan BENCHIMOL – Lahcen BOUNADER The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents’ inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia regarding the output gap, revenue, or interest rate. To the extent that bygones are not bygones under price level targeting, rational inflation expectations is a minimal condition for […]

Mardi | 2021-01-26 16H00 – Webinar Walter STEINGRESS Exporting is known to improve _rm performance; numerous studies report efficiency gains arising from entry into foreign markets, greater _rm-level investment, greater employment among other complementary firm-level changes. However, successful exporters inherently satisfy multiple constraints simultaneously: they find buyers for their product abroad, hire sufficient inputs, access necessary financing, and pass legal obstacles, among others. We focus on two potentially limiting constraints to successful entry into export markets: profitability and access to […]

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Mercredi | 2020-10-22 12h00 en B103 Jedah OGWENO AbstractThis paper examines the impact of remittances on the tax effort of 91 developing countriesduring 2002-2017 using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). SFA makes a distinction betweenthe concepts of tax capacity (the optimum tax revenue a country can collect given its structuralfeatures) and tax effort (the ratio of actual tax revenue to tax capacity). The results indicate thatremittances increase tax effort in receiving countries and the strength of this relationship isundermined in highly […]

Mercredi | 2020-10-15 B103 – 12h00 Tobignaré YABRE Abstract :This paper proposes a critical survey on the role of budget institutions in promoting optimal fiscal policy based onspecific experiences of African countries. The paper shows that the observed path of fiscal policy in Africa departsfrom the normative prescription of the optimal fiscal policy theory but finds consistent explanations in the politicaleconomy literature. We argue that relevant budget institutions are needed to promote optimal fiscal policy.Institutional reforms can be done at […]

Mercredi | 2020-09-24 B103 – 11h30 Askandarou Cheik DIALLO – Isabelle RABAUD – Luc JACOLIN Abstract : This paper investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a sample of SSA 40 countries over 1980-2013. To disentangle short term from long-term dynamics, and take into account possible endogeneity issues, our empirical analysis is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Full Effects (DFE). We find that FDI has little […]