Mardi | 2014-04-29
Sully 5

Rui Henrique ALVES – Andrea STOIAN – Francisco SERRANITO

In this paper, we investigate the issues regarding the stabilization of public debt and its decrease down to 60 per cent of GDP for selected european union countries using the primary balance derived from the public debt dynamic model as a leading indicator. We find that there is a high probability of stabilizing public debt at its 2014 level conditional on achieving an increased GDP growth rate. In addition, results indicate that it would take at least 10 years for many of the analyzed countries to decrease their public debt ratio to 60 per cent of GDP. We also draw conclusions on what really matters for fiscal sustainability and on implications for national and European fiscal policies.