Date : Jeudi | 2025-01-23 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Saniya ALI ZAHED (LEO, Université d’Orléans)

This paper analyzes the impact of China's National Sword policy introduced in 2018 on its import flows, particularly on waste imports. Our analysis scrutinizes the heterogeneity of the policy's impact across products, time, and exporters. We also explore other moderating factors including income levels, relative environmental stringency, and geopolitics that could have influenced the effectiveness of this policy. To conduct our analysis, we use HS6 product-level trade data from CEPII BACI from 1996 to 2022 for 213 exporting partners to China. We estimate a gravity model using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) with high-dimensioned fixed effects. Our findings indicate that the National Sword policy declined China's imports in quantities by 115.0%, with banned products reduced by 219.6% and products subject to quality controls by 102.9%. The results also indicate a high level of heterogeneity in the impact across the income levels, exporters, and waste products addressed in the National Sword.